Seek your suggestion

Seek your suggestion
Hi srikant,

Lalitesh here (hope u still remember me ) ...First of all let me wish Belated Merry Christmas and Happy new year in Advance !!!!

I understand that you would be too loaded with work ..but still I seek your kind help (suggestion) regarding the investment I had discussed with you and Aslanshu, because I have registered for the funds and its almost started working.

You might remember the mail I have sent you for the investment
regarding the home down payment which i need after 3 yrs and the fund i need is around 10L (atleast), and as per your valuable suggestion i have enrolled for the below funds :


Port1 (24k)
Amt
Name Date1 Date2 Date3
HDFC T200 N/A N/A 1,000
Sundaram Sel Foc N/A N/A 1,000
DSPMLT100 N/A N/A 1,000
UTI Spread LTP(G)2,000 1000 1000
HSBC MIP -RP(G) 2,000 2000 2000
DSPML Balanced 2,000 1000 2000
Kotal Floater LTP(G)2,000 1000 2000
Investment Amount
:: 24,000/months

Time Horizon
:: 3 yrs

As of now i have selected to invest for next 1 yrs only.

Objective
:: to acheive >10L corpus by next 3 yr.

I had submitted the form of UTI Mahila fund also for 7k/month but as per my agent, it was rejected becuase only females can only invest in this fund. so will be choosing some other fund soon and register for the same . Final plan is to have 31k/month plan.

Could you please suggest me if this portfolio looks fine of it need any modification. Similarly i have created few other portfolio for my future needs but since its still under registration so haven't share the same here.

I'll be seeking your expertise to comment on those portfolio as well, once i send you the details. Finally, can i have your suggestion on my this 24k portfolio.



Regards.

Lalitesh.

SRIKANTH SHANKAR MATRUBAI Replies :
Dear Lalitesh Kumar,
I am happy to see your mail again. And I am particularly more happy
to see that you have not ignored my suggestion and have avoided All your
investment into Debt Fund and have also considered Equity Funds.
You seem to have chosen your funds well, going by the fact that a good number of them have a solid performance track record.
However, I have concern that you seem to have invested just a bit on the higher side in DSPML Balanced Fund. Given the nature of your goal and time limit, you can consider switching to DSPML Savings Plan (Moderate) with a Equity Exposure of 20% (compared to 65% equity exposure in DSPML Balanced Fund).
DSPML Balanced Fund has had a good track record but the current market appreas to continue remain volatile and may not the recent highs in a hurry, and moreover the Debt Funds due to Falling Interest Rates should easily give you upwards of 12% return in next 6-9 months.
Your agent is ignorant. Any person (male or female) can invest in UTI Mahila Fund. Only the name is Mahila. Sure, go ahead and invest. Its small Corpus is 82.46 makes it manageable. The Fund is rated 5 Star by ValueResearch.
Though the Fund has had a bad 2008 with a return of negative 8%, the 3 years return continue to impress at above 20%. And the Fact that the Fund has only 12% in equity and with falling interest rates, the Fund should give you good returns.

Even as recently as Novermber 2008, the Hindu Businessline had given a "Invest" Recommendation on the fund. You can find the same in the link

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2008/11/23/stories/2008112350591000.htm
You can also consider investing the additional 7k in UTI Spread itself.

NOTE : AS YOU INTEND TO WITHDRAW WITHIN 1 YEAR, YOU WILL BE CHARGED WITH EXIT LOAD IN SOME SCHEMES, ENQUIRE ABOUT THE SAME BEFORE INVESTING.

Best of luck,
Srikanth shankar Matrubai

See the earlier query by Lalitesh Kumar on

http://goodfundadvisor.blogspot.com/2008/08/10-lakhs-in-3-years.html


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Student's dilemma on Diversified Funds or Balanced Funds?

Student's dilemma on Diversified Funds or Balanced Funds?
From: Akhil Sharma

Hi! Mr.Advisor

hi.
I'm a student.My age is 23.i love to save my money.it's been a year that i've invested in various equity diversified funds like
ICICI pru infra
Reliiance diversified power

Sundaram capex
Reliance RSF equity
Kotak indo world infra
I've invested Rs.5000 in each of them.As the last year has been bad for the markets...i've lost 50% of my investment.Now i want to invest again but not in diversified as i now want to have different type of funds in my portfolio.

I wanted to know if DSP black rock balanced fund,UTI mahila unit scheme and Reliance banking fund would be a good deal to invest or not and should i go for lumpsum or i should go for SIPs!
Any of your suggestions for me are welcome.

Thank you!
You're doing a great job!.....cheers to ur blog!!
Akhil sharma


SRIKANTH SHANKAR MATRUBAI replied :
Dear Akhil sharma,
First of all, thank you for your kind words on my blog.
You have started your invested at the peak of the Bull Market and hence it is no surprise that your investment value is down by 50%.
Alas, your investment has all been in Infrastructure Funds which only adds to the downswing of your investment value.
Thankfully, I am happy to note that you have not lost your heart and ready to invest again. Yes, as you yourself have admitted, you need to diversify your investment horizon. The funds you have selected for investment are all Balanced Fund. And at your age, you can go for Diversified Funds as these funds typically give you more return than Balanced Funds over a longer periods of time.
you can consider one among the following funds for your future investments.
Birla sunlife Equity fund
Fidelity Equity Fund
HDFC Top 200 fund
Reliance Growth Fund
Sundaram Select Focus Fund.

If you are still considering Balanced funds, you can think of HDFC Prudence Fund which has an excellent Track Record since its inception.
Preferably, go for SIPS.
Best of luck,
Srikanth Shankar Matrubai,
Bangalore

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KINGFISHER AIRLINES - PROMISING GOOD TIMES

KINGFISHER AIRLINES - PROMISING GOOD TIMES
Kingfisher Airlines Limited Formerly known as Deccan Aviation Ltd. The Group's principal activity is to provide commercial passenger airline and a private helicopter and airplane chartering services in India.
After the Annual General Meeting, I had a chance to talk with the “King of Good Times”, Dynamic Chairman of Kingfisher Airlines, Dr.Vijay Mallya.


He announced “the worst is over for the Airlines Industry. Kingfisher Airlines Fundamentals is getting stronger by the day and we will start to break even from this month itself.
“I think the worst is over and there’s no reason why private equity investors who had expressed interest when oil was at $100 a barrel shouldn’t be more interested when oil is $36 a barrel,” Mallya said


He said once the Govt brings the ATF under the ‘Declared Goods’ category, Kingfisher Airlines will immediately reduce fares.
“We can pass on pretty much majority of the savings and that would be good for the industry, make air travel even more affordable and stimulate an industry that has slowed down considerably,” claimed Mallya.
.
"Kingfisher will be the biggest airline in India by 2010 not only in terms of market share, as others claim. In all the aspects, it will be the biggest. Wait and you will see," he said, dismissing all related questions. Hyperbole? Like the man says, we will wait and see.

MY TAKE :
At least in Near Short Term of upto 1 year, things are looking much much brighter than it was in anytime of the Kingfisher’s history. The operations costs are lower and there are no visible signs of going up, and, the Airfares are not being reduced and surprisingly, the load factor is going up, which should all add up to “Good Times” for the Kingfisher Stock. Can expect an upside of at least 40% from here and expect the Stock to reach at least 50-55 by June End 2009. Buy in Small quantities as “Contra” Pick. The stock could be the Dark horse of 2009.





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EXTRAORDINARY OUTLOOK FOR GOLD

EXTRAORDINARY OUTLOOK FOR GOLD
Dear All,
I received an interesting article on Gold today morning from Kotak Mutual Fund and you have to read it. It is very very interesting.
The damage caused by the financial excesses of the last quarter century was forcing the world's authorities to take steps that had never been tried before.



This gamble was likely to end in one of two extreme ways: with either a resurgence of inflation; or a downward spiral into depression, civil disorder, and possibly wars. Both outcomes will cause a rush for gold.



Find below an extremely interesting link which details why gold prices have been depressed and why dollar has been outwardly biddish despite deteriorating fundamentals. All along the article are very interesting snippets from industry veterans and analysts on their outlook on the current happenings and its impact on gold going forward..

The link is :
https://www.golddrivers.com/dispatches/tgdrall/ShowArticle.aspx?id=b0c7762f-5e47-4e99-b621-5581b484c167

So a good moment to get in gold stocks now?

According to Frank Veneroso, a well known gold market strategist, yes, he recently said:

I think gold might have a very explosive upside in the current environment. Gold stocks are now extremely cheap relative to the price of gold with the commodity bust, gold mining costs are falling. I think money managers should now be buying gold stocks.

So, dear investors,, can you ignore investing in DSPBR World Gold Fund or AIG World Gold Fund?. Obviously not.
Think again and invest at least a portion of your investible surplus is Gold Funds.
Best of luck,
Srikanth Shankar Matrubai


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BUY GOLD NOW BEFORE IT BECOMES EXPENSIVE
Dear all,
The Global Financial Crises we are witness to today is unprecendented and many Economies, (even Developed ones) are on the brink of an looming impending Recession. In response, Central Banks, with US leading from the front, are pumping in tonnes and tonnes of money by printing more and more Dollars. But the disaster waiting to happen is, that this Oversupply of Paper Currency is not backed by any Real Assets such as Gold. Which means, that the Currency that the US Govt is pumping is only a Paper churned out from Printing Presses.
What this creates is, that Gradually the Confidence in US Dollar will reduce and its VALUE too decrease (Remember Zimbabwe?).


This is where a proxy currency such as "GOLD" holds intrinsic value, since the supply of it is limited and which is not in control of any Central Bank. Gold has a unique characteristic of "storage value", vis-à-vis paper currencies. Paper currencies tend to lose value over a period of time due to inflation (loss of purchasing power) caused by over supply as it leads to a situation where more and more currency is required to buy the same amount of goods.
Another shocker is that the Gold Reserves held by US, UK and other Developed Countries on threshold of depression has fallen considerably. While the ratio of Gold to Currency was 141.2 tonnes to 1bn$ in circulation, now it is ONLY 10.7tonnes to 1bn$ in circulation. This shows that More paper Currency is in circulation backed by Less Gold. To correct this analomy, the US needs to increase its Gold Reserves by MORE than 13 times!!!!
This will only Fasten the process of Falling Confidence and Faith in the US Dollar and hasten the image of Gold as the Saviour to protect over the Long Term.
Citigroup, in a recent report has said that gold will touch US$ 2,000 per ounce. That's 2.5 times the current price of the yellow metal at US$ 800. The firm believes the measures taken to tackle the financial crisis will not stabilise the global economy. Instead they will lead to a painful depression. As per the bank, the financial system has tripped beyond recovery, towards depression. In this scenario, there will be a flight towards gold. In fact, according some reports, China plans to add nearly 6 times its current gold reserves of 600 tonnes in a move away from foreign paper currencies.


With the financial crisis not over yet and the recession looming large, central banks would continue to inject more and more money into the financial system. Thus the debasement of the currencies will continue making Gold more and more attractive as a hedge against the dwindling purchasing power and the loss of faith and confidence in paper currencies.

Gold is seriously undervalued.

Buy gold before it gets expensive.


On where to invest, you can visit http://goodfundadvisor.blogspot.com/2008/12/dspbr-and-aig-world-gold-funds.html
http://goodfundadvisor.blogspot.com/2008/09/buy-gold-now.html
http://goodfundadvisor.blogspot.com/2008/09/is-dspml-world-gold-fund-good-buy.html
Best of luck,
Srikanth Shankar Matrubai

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DBS CHOLA TAX ADVANTAGE FUND - AVOID

DBS CHOLA TAX ADVANTAGE FUND - AVOID
DBS Chola Mutual Fund has launched DBS Chola Tax Advantage Fund – Series 1. The fund is a 10 - year close ended equity linked
saving scheme, subject to a lock in for a period of three years from date of allotment.

The fund which opened December 19, will close on March 19. The objective of the scheme is to seek to generate long-term capital growth from a diversified portfolio of predominantly equity and equity-related securities and also enabling investors to get income tax rebate as per the prevailing Tax Laws and subject to applicable conditions. The fund, benchmarked against BSE 200 Index would invest between 80- 100% in Indian equities and equity related securities and 0% to 20% in money market instruments / debt securities instruments.

Sanjay Sinha, chief executive officer, DBS Cholamandalam Asset Management said, "this fund will follow 'value investing strategy'. Current market conditions favour this strategy as it limits the downside potential of these stocks. In addition to the tax benefit, a 3 year lock-in allows investors to realise a better potential for their investment."

The minimum amount for application during the new fund offering period will be Rs. 500 and in multiples of Rs. 500 thereafter.

MY TAKE :
Though the Fund House has been in existence for quite some time, it has just been an also ran with none of its schemes ranking among the Top 10. Sure, it has Sanjay Sinha in its rank who joined recently, but he will have a tough job ahead to prove himself in these volative times.
The Fact that your fund is locked in for 10 years also goes against this fund. You are better off by investing in Existing Proven funds rather than Putting in an Unknown Specie yet to prove itself. It is like a Known Devil is Better than an Unknown Angel.
AVOID.

Best of luck,
Srikanth shankar Matrubai
Bangalore

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Invest in Kotak Short Term bond

Invest in Kotak Short Term bond
I recieved this letter from Kotak AMC and found it very interesting. May be it will be useful to you also. Here goes......
Dear All



“Opportunity does not knock, it presents itself when you beat down the door”. This seems to be the case in the Indian bond markets as well. The flight
for safety factor has led to government securities rally across the world reaching all time lows. The treasury rates across the world – esp developed countries like the US, Japan, UK, EU are so low (practically 0 in some cases) that the investor. The investor looking out for some yield on his/her investment has now started looking out for some quality assets - not as safe as sovereign though high grade assets in the corporate bond segment. US treasuries have rallied from 3.75% to 2% in 6 weeks !!! (currently at 2.17%). Global investors are increasingly buying into the view that in such a financial climate it would be safer to own a companys bond than its shares. BHP Billiton shares were down 5% on a trading day last week, but BHPs bond was trading marginally higher on the same day. With companies deferring dividend payment and preserving cash to pay its debt in time, global money has started chasing yields – albeit in a small manner



In India during the interest rate rally in 2000-2003, spreads between the 5yr corporate bond and 5 yr gsec had touched a low of 30 bps…Likewise for a 3 yr segment, the spreads had touched a low of 15 bps !!!!!



Case for investment in Kotak Bond Short Term



The above factors form the plinth for investment in our Kotak Bond Short Term. The fund is positioned to reap the benefits of carry as well as spread compression in the corporate bond segment of the fixed income market. The current spreads are at 300 bps in the 3 and 5yr segment – which is significantly higher compared to the spreads we witnessed in the previous rate rally. While we do agree that there is general risk aversion in the credit segment – quality credit (combination of PSU and Pvt) does pose a huge investment opportunity. Most PSU are either partly or wholly owned by the Govt of India and therefore quasi sovereign entities. The spreads therefore present an imminent compression theory going forward. While the spreads may not come off in a hurry, in the initial phase, these would act as high carry on the portfolio. Also the 2,3 and 5 yr yield are largely flat (yielding the same). With expectations of reverse repo cut going forward and easy liquidity in the system, this curve could steepen .i.e shorter end could rally at a faster pace than the longer end, leading to a curve steepener.



This is what we endeavor to capture in bond short term, where corporate bonds varying from 2-5 yr maturity is held. The average maturity is capped at 3 yrs, with 25% allocated to cash for trading calls and positioned at the shorter end of the yield curve. This combination makes it ideal for being recommended from a 1 to 3m perspective.



Investors having beyond 3 month horizon should continue to look at investments in long term gilt and bond funds



The top holdings of Kotak Bond Short Term are :- ACC – 9.5%, IDFC – 9.37%, Grasim – 9.28%, REC (Rural Electrification Corporation) - 9.25%, EXIM – 9.16%, IRFC – 9.93%. Current avg maturity is at 2.50 years with a portfolio yield of 9%. The fund is rated mfAAA by ICRA *

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